Особенно интересны конгитивные искажения
https://terrypang.co/blog/mental-models ... -thinking/
1. Bayesian reasoning and thinking in probabilities: How do we know what is true? Our ability to discern what is real should form the very bedrock for all our beliefs...Every belief you have should be held probabilistically. It means that you can never be 100% certain of anything.
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Update your opinions based on the latest evidence. Changing your position represents intellectual honesty. Consistency is just ideological dogmatism.
Некоторые когнитивные искаженияThinking probabilistically, not succumbing to narratives.
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Base rates: If I tell you that Steven is an American who happens to be an avid reader and loves organizing, would you say he is more likely to be a farmer or librarian? If you guessed librarian, it’s because you’ve ignored the base rate. There are 100 times more farmers than librarians, so even with the new piece of information, it is still far more likely that he is a farmer. Never be skewed by new information and always consider the base rate probabilites
1) Anchoring effect
When faced with uncertainty, our brains grasp at straws, looking for a reference point to base our decisions. Because of this, the first piece of information we receive tends to subconsciously bias all our subsequent perceptions and decisions. This effect is so strong that you can be told completely unrelated information, but your brain goes into pattern recognition overdrive, using that information to impact later judgments.
3) Availability bias: You have the tendency to pick facts and filter opinions based on what is most recently available in your mind, whether it corresponds to reality or not.
4) Fundamental attribution error: We tend to explain other people’s behavior on internal factors (poor personality etc) but not external (situational reasons like someone having a bad day). We do this in reverse for ourselves.
5) Cognitive dissonance: If there is a gap between your belief about something and your behavior or another belief, it creates a tremendous discomfort psychologically. There will be an urge to relieve this resulting tension. The tension can be so strong that the reconciliation happens almost automatically or unconsciously.
7) Motivated reasoning: We are inherently biased; we look for information that already confirms our existing beliefs. This is especially true if the belief is tied to our identity. Confronting new information forces us to not only readjust our beliefs, but also creates immense tension from cognitive dissonance and attacks our identity.
8 ) Self-esteem and identity preservation: We have a powerful drive to protect our identity and self-esteem. Any information we receive that threatens our self-esteem is usually rationalized away.
9) Dunning-Kruger effect: In order to understand the limits of your own intellectual ability, you need to have the self-awareness or metacognitive ability to evaluate it. Basically, some people can be too incompetent to realize their own incompetence.
Global vs local optimization: Imagine a situation where you are trying to find the tallest part of a hilly landscape. The problem is that you can only see 1 meter ahead of you. The natural instinct is to continuously move toward a higher direction until you hit a peak. The problem is if you started off near the base of a smaller hill, you might have found a “local” peak, but there might be a higher peak in the “global” landscape that you’ve missed by following the constrained optimization pattern. Sometimes a decision might seem great within a set of constraints, but you might be missing a larger, global optimum because it requires you to reset your perspective by climbing downhill.
